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MOSCOW, November 8. /TASS/. Trump’s foreign policy, potential snap elections in Germany, and NATO’s continued support for Ukraine without Washington’s aid. These stories topped the headlines in Friday’s newspapers across Russia.
With Donald Trump returning to the White House in January 2025, Washington’s approach to the Ukraine conflict may undergo significant changes. The reshaping of policy toward China is also possible, for instance, intensifying pressure on Beijing and initiating new trade wars. As a rather pro-Israeli politician, Trump may increase support for the Jewish state while trying to facilitate the settlement of the Middle Eastern conflict. The process of normalization in that region, however, will be complex due to Trump’s anti-Iranian stance observed during his first presidential term. The prospects of dialogue with North Korea remain unclear. Additionally, new differences of opinion are possible in the US’ relations with the EU and NATO allies.
American historian and former Harvard University professor Vladimir Brovkin anticipates the cessation of combat and a gradual suspension of military aid because, during the Trump administration, most resources will be channeled toward restoring the American economy and industry.
“As for Ukraine, here it is important to look at statements by future Vice President J.D. Vance. He clearly said that they need to protect their own borders, not the Ukrainian ones. Kiev has been pushed to the back burner. This does not mean that they will simply leave it hanging. The US has a rather strong political elite, including military circles, which certainly wants everything to continue. Yet even the military wants the money to be headed their way, above all, and not to the Ukrainians,” Brovkin explained.
“As for Israel, resetting relations with it is also among Trump’s priorities. That said, there is some lingering grudge between Trump and Netanyahu after the Israeli premier supported the Biden administration at the beginning of his term. However, this is hardly likely to hinder a working dialogue between Washington and Tel Aviv, with the exception that Trump will demand concessions and adherence to US policy from the Israelis, threatening to cut their arms assistance,” Middle East expert Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia.
Joe Biden has largely inherited Trump’s policy toward Beijing instead of coming up with something new, Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told the newspaper.
“So one shouldn’t expect any sudden changes here. They are more likely to be about the approach. We know that Trump can make swift and sudden moves. Yet the Republican has always supported greater resolve, and it seems he will stick to this course in the future,” Kashin said.
The US has a great number of disagreements with another Asian country, North Korea. Biden’s approach was the so-called strategic patience, which included the containment of North Korea and weakening it with sanctions and military pressure, Kashin noted. In his opinion, Trump may try to return to a diplomatic approach to Pyongyang. He was the first US president to hold a top-level meeting with a North Korean leader. The expert thinks that even if Trump tries to revive a diplomatic settlement, his current positions are significantly weaker compared to 2017.
Sergey Shein, researcher with the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, thinks that from the perspective of Transatlantic unity, so far, no serious rifts should be expected with Trump’s arrival. However, according to the expert, after 2025, there will be a growing division in the Transatlantic camp, triggered by trade and technology-related issues. The European Union needs a technological breakthrough and fears that Washington is reindustrializing at its expense.
Changes are also possible with regard to NATO. During his first presidency and later, Trump was very critical of the military alliance, repeatedly questioning the unity and future of the organization. He was particularly outraged by financial contributions to the military bloc, which provided little in return to Washington, while the allies’ expenses were extremely low.
Germany’s governing “traffic light” coalition, comprised of the Social Democratic Party of Germany Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Alliance 90/The Greens, has dissolved. On January 15, 2025 Chancellor Olaf Scholz will call a vote of confidence in the Bundestag. A no-confidence vote could lead to early parliamentary elections in March, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported.
The causes of the coalition’s collapse lie in its very composition, said Artyom Sokolov, a researcher at the European Studies Institute of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. According to him, the three parties were truly united only for a short period, in the spring-summer of 2022, following the onset of Russia’s special military operation.
“However, as the Ukraine conflict dragged on, Germany became more involved by increasing aid to Kiev, and all of this was accompanied by growing economic problems domestically,” he told Izvestia.
Sokolov believes that, following snap elections, a new “greater coalition” may emerge, which would include the SPD and the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU).
It is possible that Scholz is hoping to retain his seat in the government, while the head of the conservative Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz, could also assume this role.
Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump’s election victory has not yet affected combat in the Ukrainian conflict zone. Ukraine is trying to retain its positions on the eastern front and in Russia’s bordering Kursk Region. Earlier, Trump vowed to end the Ukraine conflict in 24 hours. That said, his opponents in the US and European NATO allies have already indicated their readiness to support the Kiev regime militarily “until victory.”
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, speaking of the current situation on the frontline, said that support for the Ukrainian army will increase, reiterating that it is just a small part of NATO member states’ annual military budgets and less than 1% of their annual GDP.
“Rutte is stretching the truth. Forty billion euros from NATO, plus the promised separate military aid from the US and other countries in military technologies, the construction of defense factories, the production of shells, and so on – these are huge material and financial resources. They are capable not only of maintaining the Ukrainian army’s combat potential but also of increasing it,” Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yury Netkachev, a military expert, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
The expert noted that not only NATO and the US send aid to Kiev but also Australia and Taiwan, which supplied the Kiev regime with MIM-23 HAWK medium-range surface-to-air missile systems via third countries.
The active phase of the first-ever joint naval exercise between the Russian and Indonesian fleets, dubbed Orruda-2024, has kicked off in the Java Sea. It will last for two days, November 7 and 8. During the drills, the crews of battleships from the two countries will practice mine, air, and submarine defense, as well as hold artillery and counter-terrorism training. Experts note that Orruda-2024 helps enhance and broaden ties with the largest country in Southeast Asia.
“The military exercise is important given Russia’s policy of diversifying relations in the region and the BRICS factor,” Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia.
He noted that military and technical cooperation with Indonesia was rather active in the 2010s but was suspended under US sanctions. “In this situation, it is important for us to maintain the dynamics of ties with the Indonesian armed forces, which will allow us to return to full-scale cooperation once circumstances improve. Indonesia is an important and influential country, and our interaction must encompass the entire range, from the economy to the military sphere,” the expert explained.
Kashin stressed that “ties between the military help strengthen Russia’s position on issues of regional and global security.”
“It is important for Russia to maintain relations in the security sphere with ASEAN countries amid the continued rapprochement with China. By doing so, we emphasize that we remain an independent actor in the region, with our own stance and approach to partners,” the expert concluded.
The European Union has switched from pumping gas into underground gas storage (UGS) facilities to withdrawing it, according to data provided by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). According to calculations by Vedomosti, by the beginning of the heating season, the EU had accumulated 105.7 billion cubic meters of gas, having filled its UGS facilities to 95.3% as of October 28.
The current supplies are enough for a comfortable 2024/25 heating season in the EU, experts polled by Vedomosti say. Analyst at Finam Sergey Kaufman thinks that the scenario of a gas deficit in Europe this winter is hardly realistic, even if Russian gas transit via Ukraine completely halts.
Senior analyst at BCS World of Investments Ronald Smith thinks that a cold winter may have a greater impact on the European gas market. According to his estimate, the return to “normal” weather (winters have been anomalously warm over the past two years) may increase gas consumption by 20-25 billion cubic meters over the season, which surpasses the volume transiting via Ukraine.
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